After a sweep in the wild card round, my picks against the spread were 2-2 last week. The Packers and the Steelers were successful picks, while my beloved New England Patriots didn’t even show up for their game against the New York Jets. I’m sure there’s a “foot in mouth” joke to be made, especially considering news that Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is having foot surgery this week, but I haven’t yet gotten over that pathetic performance on Sunday to crack any jokes.

My overall column record is now 48-44 with one tie. My success rate is 51.6%, shy of the magical 53% threshold. A bettor typically needs to win 53% of his or her bets in order to profit, based on the idea that you have to wager 110 units in order to win 100 units. Including this Sunday’s championship games, I have three chances left to improve my overall record for the season.

Sadly, I’ve lost my shot at a perfect 11-0 run. The same cannot be said about Paul Bessire, the general manager and creator of the PredictionMachine.com, who is perfect in the playoffs so far.

The Prediction Machine is a quantitative way to break down NFL games as it simulates each contest 50,000 times to come up with a pick against the spread. So far, the model has gone 8-0 in the playoffs. Bessire, though, is modest in his reaction to his playoff success, arguing that luck has a lot to do with the outcome of each and every game.

“I was asked to what degree does luck play in the individual games, and I said that luck shows up in every single game,” Bessire says. “In the short term, especially with an investment strategy coming up with probabilities, luck could have a lot to do with whether we’re on one side of the pick or not. Luck means a lot in the short term. In the long term, we win out because we consistently find opportunity to wager when something is likely to occur 60% of the time.”

The problem that arises in this championship round of NFL playoffs games is that the spreads for the games make much more sense than in the last two weeks. Remember, the Bears were favored by 10 points last week, while the Patriots were nine-point favorites. In the wild card round, the New Orleans Saints were laying more than 10 points as they traveled to play in Seattle.

These smaller spreads this week means less opportunity to expose lopsided lines, and Bessire says neither of the two NFL conference championship games yields a probable win against the spread more than 57% of the time. That doesn’t bode well for someone like Bessire who is aiming to go 10-0.

“Based on our own confidence, we only have a 31% chance of hitting both sides on Sunday,” Bessire admits. “That’s still much better than throwing darts, yet not as likely as we have come to expect by exploiting invalid lines for two weeks.”

With that, it’s onto my picks for the two title games this Sunday. Once again, these are for entertainment purposes only. And as always, I’ve enlisted the help of PredictionMachine.com’s Paul Bessire.

I’ve also collected commentary on both games from bmaker.ag CEO Mickey Richardson. His analysis focuses on the spread movement by his oddsmakers and a look at where the public and professional money is moving on each game. These are necessary tools for bettors on the hunt for inefficiencies and value based on betting trends.

Read on for the first game preview, the early Sunday game with the Packers on the road again to play the Chicago Bears.

By Scott Cooley

MLS Betting Online: The Houston Dynamo, and their betting backers, probably still feel as if they got suckered-punched Saturday night.

With a 2-1 lead in the 91st minute, the Dynamo allowed New York’s Mehdi Ballouchy to net the equalizer and dash any hope of coming away with three points. Houston would have cashed as 160 underdogs on the three-way MLS soccer odds moneyline but the ‘draw’ option of 210 proved to be the winner.

With two consecutive ties, and five in 11 regular-season matches, the Dynamo have turned 7.23 units of profit for players who bet on the ‘draw’ in every game. Houston currently holds down the third place position out East with 14 points and a 3-3-5 overall record.

Bouncing back from a loss like this will be difficult. Head coach Dominic Kinnear said his squad suffered from “a lack of concentration.” You have to wonder where his guys’ heads will be after such a deflating loss that could have huge standings implications.

The task at hand Wednesday would be easier if Houston was playing the Whitecaps or SKC, but it comes against one of the league’s elite. Los Angeles is perched atop the MLS standings with a 6-2-5 record and 23 points.

The Galaxy are coming off another win against intra-city rival Chivas USA in the SuperClasico series. The 1-0 victory marked the fourth consecutive win by L.A. over Chivas.

Los Angeles was a heavy favorite in that match for the pick ‘em spread and it also cashed the -105 MLS odds for the three-way moneyline. Three of the last four Galaxy games have gone ‘under’ the offered 2.5-goal total.

There were some critical words directed toward David Beckham by the local media going into Saturday’s fixture because he traveled to play in the Gary Neville testimonial match against Juventus on Tuesday. But the soccer icon didn’t look fatigued against Chivas and provided his sixth assist of the year off a free kick.

“I know if I put it in the right area, then we’ve got a chance of scoring and it’s happened the last few games,” Beckham said.

Both teams in this match have a quick turnaround. Houston must travel so that puts them in more of a dire situation. The Dynamo haven’t won on the road all year while the Galaxy have netted 4.40 moneyline units at The Home Depot Center.

The MLS soccer odds for this match were released by BookMaker on Tuesday and the three-way moneylines were: Houston 325, Los Angeles -143, Draw 225. The 2.5-goal total was weighted toward the ‘under’ at -135. In the last 29 league matches, the over/under is 9-20.

Why choose online sports gambling over other forms of gambling? Putting aside the exciting entertainment factor, there is one simple reason…

Land based sportsbook and online sports betting are essentially the same. It’s either you win or lose, and these two possibilities should be clear because it’s not all about winning. The game principles employed in them are basically the same, since online venues have adapted the features of the real casinos. But there is a difference in terms of convenience, and herein lies the argument.

When it comes to choosing a online sportsbook or a local bookmaker, there will always be two choices: Local Vs. Online. Both can make a strong case for their preference and will guarantee you that their betting method is the only worthy way out there. To keep you from having to fight it out with well-meaning advisors we have taken an objective look at both sports betting options, online and local – so you can make up your own mind.

Many sports bettors are very particular about the way they place their bets, it is in many ways a set ritual, which can vary from person to person. Local bookmaking outlets are a great place for punters who love routine. They have restricted opening hours every day, you will often meet the same bettors on the premises and an atmosphere of familiarity will quickly be established. You can fill in your racecard with your lucky pen and maybe even watch the race on the premises (most land-based bookies’ have several televisions transmitting simultaneous sporting events).

Online bookmakers offer their own kinds of rituals – simply because you don’t need to physically move, doesn’t mean there is a lack of routine to enjoy. Whether you choose to bet at the same time on the same days, use different bookmakers for different days of the week or establish a different ritual around your betting habits, the internet bookmakers provide you with opportunity.

Convenience

Don’t feel like flying or taken a long drive gambling? Looking to play casino games from the comfort of your own home? We have one of the biggest list of internet casinos, so your only option is NOT Land Base gambling. Find a casino in your part of the world by using the list of recommended sites listed here.

MLS Betting Online: The defending MLS Cup champs are unbeaten in their last five games but feel they should start accruing more points, and payouts, in the immediate future.

Colorado played to a scoreless tie against Toronto FC on Sunday, cashing the +265 three-way MLS betting moneyline ‘draw’ option. The Rapids have played to three consecutive draws which has produced more than 6.00 units of profit over the last three matches.

With just five goals in the last eight games, Colorado is fortunate to still be in the Western Conference mix. The team has 16 points behind a 4-3-4 overall MLS record.

Conor Casey returned to the starting lineup for the home team Sunday but coach Gary Smith said the star striker needs to get more minutes under his belt to be effective. Casey was substituted at the hour mark for Andre Akpan on Sunday but he should be able to provide dividends for the offense in the coming weeks.

This fixture against the East’s second-place squad will be difficult because of midweek travel. It’s a quick turnaround for Colorado coupled with a two-hour time-zone difference. But the Rapids have been one of the better teams on the road this year, going 2-2-2 with 8 points.

New York lost its Eastern Conference lead last weekend but a 2-2 tie on the road versus Houston wasn’t a bad result. The Red Bulls were the “favorite” at +145 but the three-way MLS betting lines ‘draw’ line cashed at +210.

The ‘draw’ has actually been the best way to play New York at the wagering window this season as that option has netted 4.84 units of profit.

One area of concern for the Red Bulls going into this match is set pieces. Five of the last six scores surrendered by them have been dead-ball goals. After conceding two in a 3-2 loss to Chivas USA on May 15, coach Hans Backe moved goalkeeper Greg Sutton back into the starting XI.

Saturday marked Sutton’s first start since March 19 because of a concussion. But even with a new netminder and the same zonal marking system, New York allowed two more set-piece scores against the Dynamo.

This is still one of the better overall, and defensive, teams in the league despite the recent struggles. The Bulls give up the third-fewest goals per game in league at .80 per game so expect Backe to have his soldiers in formation Wednesday.

BookMaker sent out the three-way moneylines for this game at Colorado +350, New York -153 and Draw +235. The MLS betting lines 2.5-goal total was weighted toward the ‘under’ at -155. In the last 29 league matches, the over/under is 9-20.

By Scott Cooley

MLS Betting Online: After a two-hour rain delay produced a soaked pitch Sunday night in Dallas, the home team couldn’t find a way to get on the scoreboard and came away with a point in a scoreless draw against one of the league’s elite in Real Salt Lake.

FC Dallas was favored on the spread line in that match at -200, but since it ended in a tie that bet was graded as a push. What did cash was the +210 three-way moneyline MLS online odds and the ‘under’ 2.5-goal total.

FCD is now unbeaten in its last five fixtures behind three wins and a pair of draws. The club has surged into second place out West with a 5-3-3 overall record and 18 points.

Defense has been the key to success recently. Dallas has built a 399-minute streak without allowing a goal—the second-longest mark in the MLS this season behind Columbus.

“I think we are feeling really comfortable with each other,” backline defender Ugo Ihemelu said. “I think now we are on the same page and working well with each other and that leads to success. I think we trust each other.”

FCD has given up the second-fewest goals per game in the Western Conference at 0.91 but this hasn’t been a great road club, going just 1-2-1 away from Pizza Hut Park and allowing an average of 1.5 goals per match.

Seattle earned a 1-0 home victory over Sporting Kansas City on Saturday, cashing the -133 three-way MLS odds moneyline as well as the hefty -325 PK spread. An abundance of scoring opportunities was expected in that match as the 2.5-goal total was weighted toward the ‘over.’

The Sounders are now unbeaten in their last three games and sit in a tie for third out West with 17 points and a 4-3-5 record. The best way to bet on this club so far has been the ‘draw’ because of five ties in 12 league matches. The 6.91 units earned there is the best mark in the conference.

Much like Dallas, the Sounders are getting sound defensive efforts from their backline. SKC is known for its free-wheeling, attacking style but they only got off three shots on goal in the first half of Saturday’s match.

This will be the second match of a grueling eight-day, three-game stretch that will surely test Seattle’s stamina. A quality opponent is on deck but the Sounders can’t afford to look ahead toward Real Salt Lake on Saturday. They have one loss at Qwest Field this year and allow just 0.67 goals per game there.

The MLS online odds for this match were first available at BookMaker sportsbook. The three-way moneyline wagering options were: Dallas +200, Seattle +115, Draw +210. The forecast for Qwest Field on Wednesday calls for a low of 49 and a 50 percent chance of rain. The last two Sounders matches there have gone ‘under’.

How many times can the same story be written? The same disappointment be expressed?

This is the second time for Manny Ramirez, who as a young man loved baseball so much that he ran the hills of his Washington Heights neighborhood near Yankee Stadium with one end of a rope tied around his waist and the other tied to a tire. Dragging the tire made him stronger and faster.

His high school coach said Ramirez was going to be the next George Bell, the fierce, power-hitting outfielder for the Toronto Blue Jays. Ramirez was better — way better — and he didn’t need Bell’s fierceness to do it. He always seemed to be just messing around with baseball. That he just stumbled across a bat, picked it up and hit the first thing thrown his way 450 feet.

Mickey White, former Indians scouting director, found Ramirez in the Bronx. White said he was led to him by the sound of his bat hitting ball after ball. It made a distinctive sound, baseball’s version of Morse code, saying that there was something different about this player.

Game of Threes

Baseball is a game of threes. Three strikes and you’re out. Three outs in a half-inning. Here are two more sets of threes to consider from the first few days of the season.

THREE UP

1. In starting the season 6-0, Texas scored 43 runs and hit 13 homers.

2. After hitting 105 mph last season, Reds rookie pitcher Aroldis Chapman hit 104 mph Thursday against Houston.

3. Mariano Rivera saved the Yankees’ first four victories to move within 37 saves of 600.

THREE DOWN

1. Through their first six games, the Red Sox hit four homers and allowed 14.

2. Tigers pitchers and catchers led the big leagues with six wild pitches through their first six games.

3. Angels catcher Jeff Mathis went 0-for-6, while the opposing Royals were 6-for-6 in steal attempts, last Sunday.

Stat-O-Matic

Heavy lifting: Twins closer Joe Nathan needed 31 pitches to record his first save April 3 after missing last year with right elbow surgery.

The Flash: Veteran Willie Bloomquist stole five bases in his first five games for Arizona.

Four’s the charm: In the past two seasons, Asdrubal Cabrera (Thursday), Luis Valbuena (May 25), Jayson Nix (June 28) and Trevor Crowe (Sept. 29) have squeezed home runs for the Indians.

The List

bmaker.ag has calculated the percentages on Derek Jeter’s pursuit of 3,000 hits. Here are some of them.

• That No. 3,000 will be a single: 71.43 percent.

• That No. 3,000 will be a double: 28.57 percent.

• That No. 3,000 will be a triple: 8 percent.

• That No. 3,000 will be a homer: 11.11 percent.

• That No. 3,000 will be on 1-1 pitch: 16.67 percent.

• That No. 3,000 will be on 0-0 pitch: 11.11 percent.

• That No. 3,000 will be on 0-1 pitch: 13.33 percent.

• That No. 3,000 will be on a 3-2 pitch: 16.67 percent.

• That No. 3,000 will come between June 21 and July 1: 40 percent.

• That No. 3,000 will come between July 2 and July 15: 40 percent.

Note: Entering the 2011 season, the Yankees’ shortstop needed 74

White persuaded the Indians to take Ramirez with their first pick in 1991. Colleges weren’t a problem because Ramirez wasn’t a scholar. Four years later, Ramirez was in the big leagues to stay.

The stay ended Friday when he told Major League Baseball that he was retiring after testing positive for a banned substance in spring training. Ramirez, suspended 50 games in 2009 when he played with the Dodgers, was looking at a 100-game suspension this time. Rather than take that kind of hit, or even go through the appeal process, he told MLB officials Friday that he was retiring.

Ramirez is 38 and pretty much done as a player. It’s still a waste. He’ll never get in the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown. His numbers belong there, but he doesn’t.

It’s documented that he’s a two-time drug offender. The New York Times reported that he also failed the 2003 confidential drug test that all big-league players took to see if there was an actual steroids problem in the game. Those tests eventually created the program that drove Ramirez into retirement.

Good for the game. Shame on Ramirez.

He told ESPN Deportes that he’s at peace with himself. He said God has a plan for him and that he’s taking “his old man” on a vacation to Spain. So the kid who ran the hills of Washington Heights just shrugged and walked away? The game, his reputation, leaving a struggling Tampa Bay team in a lurch, didn’t mean a thing to Ramirez?

Don’t believe it. Not for a second.

Ramirez’s gift was a great swing. Charlie Manuel, the Indians former manager and hitting coach, said Ramirez shifted the weight in his lower body better than any hitter he’d ever seen. It gave him the ability to hit with power and average to all fields.

The swing entailed work. Ramirez was never “Manny being Manny” when it came to hitting. Indians second baseman Orlando Cabrera was amazed at the amount of preparation Ramirez did when he joined the Red Sox in 2004. Travis Fryman said the same thing when he joined the Indians from Arizona via Detroit.

“There’s a reason why some hitters are superstars,” said Sandy Alomar Jr., Ramirez’s teammate with the Indians. “It takes preparation. Manny did a lot of preparation. . . . When it came to hitting, he was a very smart guy.”

No one walks away from such a gift without regret. If Ramirez doesn’t realize it today, he soon will. If he’d done this right, if he’d stayed clean, this season could have been his farewell tour. A last chance to see a great hitter at work, but he took his dreadlocks, bandana, bats and baggy uniform and went home because he was stupid.

When you write about baseball, there are certain players you like and dislike. I’ve always had a soft spot for Ramirez. Still do.

If I saw him today, I’d walk up to him and say, “Why, Manny, why?”

By Paul Hoynes, The Plain Dealer

The Royal Wedding guest list has been published and, in addition to the vast number of celebrities, family members and close friends, there are also six ex-partners who will be in attendance.

“This will likely result in more odds being posted at bmaker.ag,” notes Payton O’Brien, Senior Editor of the Gambling911.com website.

There is also more reason to believe that Elton John’s “Your Song” will be first played when the couple takes to the dance floor. The Daily Mail notes that he will have a whole crew with him to attend the Royal Wedding.

During the popular Gambling911.com segment on Don Best TV, our own Jenny Woo discussed with host Pat Williams the odds on the first dance song with Williams noting that Elton John was a close friend of Princess Diana and dedicated his “Candle In The Wind” to her. “Your Song” was still listed with +500 or 5/1 odds as of press time. (watch the video here – it’s a must-see that everyone in the online gambling industry is talking about this past weekend)

Here is the Elton John crew a la the Daily Mail:

Former Etonians Graham Booth, Charles Gilkes – who runs Chelsea bar Maggie’s – and his brother Alexander; Edward Innes-Ker, son of the 10th Duke of Roxburghe; banking heirs James and David Jardine-Paterson, the latter now married to Kate’s close friend Emilia (nee d’Erlanger), and Mark Vestey’s polo-playing son Ben and his wife Chloe and sister Tamara are all invited.

Thomas van Straubenzee, who is expected to assist Prince Harry with the best man’s speech, together with his younger brother Charles, parents Alexander and Claire, and distant cousin William van Straubenzee, a friend of Princess Diana, will also be there.

As far as the exes go, the Daily Mail noted:

Kate has invited her ex-boyfriend Rupert Finch, whom she dated at St Andrews before she started seeing William, and her Marlborough friend Willem Marx, with whom she was rumoured to have had a relationship in the sixth-form.

Arabella Musgrave, who dated William the summer before he went to St Andrews, is invited, along with William’s first girlfriend Rose Farquhar.

All Royal Wedding betting odds courtesy of bmaker.ag: (how to read the odds: +150 means that $15 would be paid for every $10 bet. +1000 means that $100 would be paid for each $10 bet. -120 indicates that a $12 bet would have to be placed to win $10 with the $12 bet refunded only if the wager is a winner).

March 31, 2011

Wanna Bet The NFL Lockout Ends Soon?

by Bruce Raffel

While it is still uncertain how long the current NFL lockout will continue, some anxious fans are concerned that the labor dispute will cut into next season. With that in mind, we want to know: Will the NFL lockout end before September 1st?

 
CEO Mickey Richardson and his team at bmaker.ag, one of the leading sportsbooks, has calculated the odds of whether the NFL lockout will end before September 1st. Full odds below:
 
WILL THE NFL LOCKOUT END BEFORE SEPT 1ST 2011?
 
Yes                                                      -115     53%
No                                                        -115     53%

On that note, there is speculation that NFL players will go to other sports if the labor war continues…including Chad Ochocino, who was made a member of the reserve team with Major League Soccer’s Sporting Kansas City team.  How serious is Ochocino about soccer?  Will he really play soccer professionally?
 
Will Chad Ochocino Play Professionally for MLS?
 
Yes                                                      +150    40%
No                                                        -500     83%
 
[The +/- Indicates the Return on the Wager. The percentage is the likelihood that response will occur. For Example: Betting on the candidate least likely to win would earn the most amount of money, should that happen.]
 
Bookmaker expert Mickey Richardson, CEO of bmaker.ag, one of the largest sports books in the world, and his team of experienced odds makers, have put together lines for other television shows such as Project Runway, Top Chef, Lost, and Dancing with the Stars.

iPhone 5 is expected to be released this summer. Since, Steve Jobs announced the plans to launch the next-generation iPhone, rumors are flying thick and fast on how the iPhone would look like and what new features it would bring. Risk Manager Tony Harvey and his team at bmaker.ag, an online sportsbook, have calculated the odds on various new additions to the iPhone.The odds are as follows:

Will the iPhone 5 have a 4 inch screen or larger?

Yes -1000 (90%)

No +400 (20%)

Will the device have a 10-megapixel camera or better?

Yes +250 (28%)

No -500 (83%)

Will the device feature a physical keyboard?

Yes +150 (40%)

No -200 (66%)

Will the device have a sliding cover?

Yes +1000 (1%)

No -5000 (99%)

Will the device be thinner than previous versions?

Yes +1000 (1%)

No -400 (80%)

(The +/- Indicates the Return on the Wager)

Source- Bokmaker.com

The Internal Revenue Service is on the warpath, seeking large financial accounts of U.S. citizens and residents held overseas.

At the same time, the IRS is offering a temporary olive branch. Come forward now, the tax collection agency says, and pay any penalties and back taxes.

If you don’t, and the IRS finds out later, it probably means jail time, just as it did before the new amnesty program.

The IRS recently started its second amnesty program, which invites voluntary disclosure of offshore money and its income. The program expires Aug. 31.

When the IRS conducted its first amnesty program in 2009, about 15,000 foreign accounts in 60 countries were disclosed.

Between 100 and 150 of the disclosures in 2009 come from the San Antonio area, said Elizabeth Copeland, a tax lawyer with Oppenheimer, Blend, Harrison and Tate Inc. law firm. Copeland’s firm handled about 25 of those cases.

It is not against the law for U.S. citizens and residents to maintain overseas accounts. It is against the law for them not to report those accounts and their incomes to the IRS every year, Copeland said.

The IRS requires information on foreign accounts totaling more than $10,000.

The IRS is getting better at finding undisclosed foreign bank accounts. “Tax secrecy continues to erode,” said IRS Commissioner Doug Shulman in a statement. “The risk of being caught will only increase.”

People hiding money have more to fear than just the IRS efforts. WikiLeaks in January said it had received information on more than 2,000 Swiss bank accounts, which it could release at any time.

A Las Vegas-style bookie, bmaker.ag, is even taking bets, posting odds on a list of movie stars, financial big shots and politicians it says could be on the WikiLeaks list.

The bigger wild card out there, Copeland said, is the IRS whistle-blower program that can pay rewards for tips on hidden foreign bank accounts. Rewards can range between 15 percent and 30 percent of the money the IRS collects from tips, Copeland said.

Ex-spouses often are tipsters, Copeland said. “They know a lot,” she said. “It should scare some of these people hiding money.”

Copeland said she knows of cases where companies created false invoicing systems and deliberately hid money overseas.

In most cases, people with foreign accounts are unaware they have a reporting responsibility. Even some of their accountants are unaware of the requirement, Copeland said. Some people inherited money from a foreign relative and left the money in a foreign bank, unaware it needs to be reported to the IRS.

Details on how to come clean with the IRS can be obtained from the IRS site: www.irs.gov. Penalties are softer for smaller accounts than they are for larger amounts. The IRS will look back eight years for any back taxes and penalties under the 2011 amnesty program.

To be eligible, taxpayers must not already be under criminal investigation or be getting audited by the IRS, Copeland said.

Copeland believes the second amnesty program this year will be the last.

“We’ve been expecting this,” she said.” It gives more certainty to clients we’re advis